Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily murders each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government figures. But, security analysts have advised that homicide numbers might not signal improved countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these past months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the smallest number of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was also concerning because it may obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas remarked.